| FAQ |
| Why is Lester R. Brown wrong in predicting that
China cannot feed itself? |
| In
1995 Lester Brown of the Worldwatch Institute predicted that China's grain import needs
would likely increase to between 200 and 369 million tons by 2030 (Brown, 1995). While, of
course, no one knows the future, it is highly unlikely that Brown's predictions will come
true. As several experts have demonstrated in great detail, Brown used incorrect data,
made unlikely assumptions, and did not take into account the technical and economic
potential for improving China's domestic food supply (see Alexandratos, 1996, 1997; World
Bank 1997, Crook / Colby, 1996). A more detailed analysis of Browns arguments is available
in the "In-depth"-section
of this application. |
 |
Brown
under-estimated China's cultivated land area. He only briefly mentioned the serious
under-reporting of cultivated land in official Chinese statistics, but did not take into
account the implications. |
|
Since Brown's
arguments and calculations are based on a fictional cultivated land area, which is some 30
to 40 percent smaller than the true area, his yield estimates for China are too
high. |
|
Brown did not
adequately take into account China's land reserves. |
|
He did not consider
the possibilities for an expansion of multi-cropping. |
|
Brown overestimated
arable land losses and the decline in agricultural productivity due to pollution. The
major cause of arable land loss is flooding - not pollution. |
|
He did not consider
existing technical possibilities, such as better flood control, for improving disaster
prevention in China's agriculture. |
|
Brown ignores that
China is quickly moving into high-tech agriculture and livestock production, which will
most likely trigger a boost in productivity. |
|
Brown over-estimates
China's grain import demand. With realistic projections China might have a grain
deficit of between 40 to 50 million tons in 2020, which is well within the historical
range of fluctuations in the volume of the world grain market. |
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Revision 2.0 (First revision published in 1999)
- Copyright © 2011 by Gerhard K. Heilig. All rights reserved. (First revision: Copyright © 1999 by IIASA.) |
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