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Presentation

2nd Revision

Introduction

 
Data - Urbanization
Projections of China's urban population: Various methods
 

Method 1
"Extrapolation"

Method 2
"Demographic model"

Method 3
"Economic model"

 

United Nations

Zeng and Vaupel /3

Shen and Spence /4

Year

UN 94 /1

UN 96 /2

Scen. 1

Scen. 2

Scen. 3

Scen. A

Scen. B

Scen. C

1987/88

blank_3.gif (810 bytes) blank_3.gif (810 bytes)  394 394 394

334

334

334

1990

303

303

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367

367

367

1995

369

369

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450

448

448

2000

443

438

458

645

633

531

525

525

2005

519

508

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603

2010

597

578

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703

688

688

2015

676

647

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2020

756

712

502

898

853

876

851

842

2025

832

773

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2030

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828

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1,016

986

950

2040

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1,123

1,081

1,011

2050

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470

1,246

1,145

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2060

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1,234

1,188

1,007

/1: United Nations, 1995 (electronic data base)   /2: United Nations (1997):
/3: Zeng Yi / Vaupel, 1989, 434 /4: Shen / Spence, 1996, p.1435, 1438

Method 1: "Simple Extrapolation": Application of urban-rural proportion to projected total population.
Method 2: "Demographic Model": Multi-regional (multi-state) demographic projection.
Method 3: "Economic Model": Projection based on Demo-Economic Model.

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Related Tables & Charts

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Revision 2.0 (First revision published in 1999)  - Copyright 2011 by Gerhard K. Heilig. All rights reserved. (First revision: Copyright 1999 by IIASA.)