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Presentation

2nd Revision

Introduction

 
 
Data - Population Growth
UN Projection: 1994 Revision
pop_4a.gif (11906 bytes)
UN Projection: 1998 Revision
pop_4b.gif (11507 bytes)
Source: United Nations Population Division (1997): Population Estimates and Projections, The 1996 edition. New York (Data on Diskettes)
In the 1950s and 1960s Chinese women, on average, had between 5.6 and 6.3 children. However, as can be seen from these charts fertility sharply declined in the 1970s and 1980s. For 1995 the UN Population Division estimated a Total Fertility Rate of only 1.8 children per woman.
These two charts also demonstrate how difficult it is to project China's population. The chart on the left presents data from the 1994 Revision of the UN World Population Prospects; the right chart gives the results from the 1998 Revision. (The UN Population Division publishes the World Population Prospects every two years.)
Within only four years the projection had to be down-adjusted by almost 130 million people for the year 2050 (in the medium variant). This huge adjustment in the projected population is due to the enormous initial size of the Chinese population. Even small modifications in fertility assumptions (see the Total Fertility Rate) due to somewhat lower estimates of current trends have a massive impact.
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Related Tables & Charts

China's population by age groups, 1950 - 2050blank_3.gif (810 bytes)Population increase or decrease by age groups, 1950 - 2050blank_3.gif (810 bytes)Population density: Chinese provinces and comparable countriesblank_3.gif (810 bytes)UN population projection for China, the 1994 revisionblank_3.gif (810 bytes)Various population projections for Chinablank_3.gif (810 bytes)Fertility assumptions & total population projectionsblank_3.gif (810 bytes)Tables & charts for spatial population analysesblank_3.gif (810 bytes)Recent fertility estimates for Chinablank_3.gif (810 bytes)blank_3.gif (810 bytes)blank_3.gif (810 bytes)blank_3.gif (810 bytes)China's Population, A.D. 0 - 2050blank_3.gif (810 bytes)Population growth of Europe and Chinablank_3.gif (810 bytes)China's Population by Age & Sex (Population Pyramids), 1990 censusblank_3.gif (810 bytes)China's population growth, 1950 - 2050 (UN98 Projections)blank_3.gif (810 bytes)Population growth, crude birth & crude death rates, 1949 - 1996blank_3.gif (810 bytes)Population growth and TFRblank_3.gif (810 bytes)Charts & tables for spatial population analysesblank_3.gif (810 bytes)Animation: China's Population by Age & Sex, 1950 -2050blank_3.gif (810 bytes)blank_3.gif (810 bytes)blank_3.gif (810 bytes)blank_3.gif (810 bytes)Population distribution of China, 1990

Revision 2.0 (First revision published in 1999)  - Copyright 2011 by Gerhard K. Heilig. All rights reserved. (First revision: Copyright 1999 by IIASA.)