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Presentation

2nd Revision

Introduction

 
Data - Population Growth
Various population projections for China: The problem of uncertainty
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This is a compilation of selected population projections for China - some of them very recent, others from a few years ago. Non-demographers may be shocked by the wide range of population predictions, even for the not too distant future. For instance, for the year 2020 we have a very recent projection of only 1.397 billion from the International Programs Center of the US Bureau of Statistics. Shen and Spence, however, have projected a Chinese population of 1.530 billion (scenario A) for the same year.
These discrepancies in population projections for China are mainly due to the huge current population of China. Even slight differences in fertility or mortality assumptions can cause discrepancies in projected total population of up to 200 million or more within a 25-year projection period.
This range of uncertainty is highly relevant to policy-making. Decision makers must be aware that in the case of China no one can predict the total population for the year 2025 (or even 2050) within a few million people. Even a slight change in average reproductive behavior has massive implications for the total population size. For policymakers it is absolutely essential that population projections are frequently replicated on a regular basis. Only continuous monitoring of fertility, mortality, and migration trends - translated into population projections - can provide a reasonably solid database for estimating China's food demand.
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Related Tables & Charts

China's population by age groups, 1950 - 2050blank_3.gif (810 bytes)Population increase or decrease by age groups, 1950 - 2050blank_3.gif (810 bytes)Population density: Chinese provinces and comparable countriesblank_3.gif (810 bytes)UN population projection for China, the 1994 revisionblank_3.gif (810 bytes)Various population projections for Chinablank_3.gif (810 bytes)Fertility assumptions & total population projectionsblank_3.gif (810 bytes)Tables & charts for spatial population analysesblank_3.gif (810 bytes)Recent fertility estimates for Chinablank_3.gif (810 bytes)blank_3.gif (810 bytes)blank_3.gif (810 bytes)blank_3.gif (810 bytes)China's Population, A.D. 0 - 2050blank_3.gif (810 bytes)Population growth of Europe and Chinablank_3.gif (810 bytes)China's Population by Age & Sex (Population Pyramids), 1990 censusblank_3.gif (810 bytes)China's population growth, 1950 - 2050 (UN98 Projections)blank_3.gif (810 bytes)Population growth, crude birth & crude death rates, 1949 - 1996blank_3.gif (810 bytes)Population growth and TFRblank_3.gif (810 bytes)Charts & tables for spatial population analysesblank_3.gif (810 bytes)Animation: China's Population by Age & Sex, 1950 -2050blank_3.gif (810 bytes)blank_3.gif (810 bytes)blank_3.gif (810 bytes)blank_3.gif (810 bytes)Population distribution of China, 1990

Revision 2.0 (First revision published in 1999)  - Copyright 2011 by Gerhard K. Heilig. All rights reserved. (First revision: Copyright 1999 by IIASA.)