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Presentation

2nd Revision

Introduction

 
Data - Population
Recent Fertility Estimates for China: Total Fertility Rates by Age, 1995

County (rural)

Town (urban)

City (urban)

Age

TFR
measured
correction
factor
TFR
corrected
TFR
measured
correction
factor
TFR
corrected
TFR
measured
correction
factor
TFR
corrected

15 -19

0.07 0.041 0.08 0.03 0.02 0.04 0.02 0.02 0.03

20 - 24

0.85 0.538 1.08 0.66 0.53 0.84 0.54 0.49 0.70

25 - 29

0.47 0.298 0.60 0.43 0.34 0.54 0.43 0.39 0.56

30 - 34

0.15 0.093 0.19 0.10 0.08 0.13 0.10 0.09 0.13

35 - 39

0.03 0.020 0.04 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02

40 - 44

0.01 0.006 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00

45 - 49

0.00 0.002 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Total

1.58   2.00 1.25   1.58 1.13   1.43
   

 

 

Total Country

  Recent fertility surveys in China have reported extremely low levels of fertility. The raw figures from the 1995 1% fertility survey are as low as 1.13 for cities and 1.58 for (the rural) counties. The State Statistical Bureau has corrected these raw figures, but even the modified fertility estimates seem to be unlikely low. While a TFR of 1.43 for cities seems to be possible, one can have doubts that women in rural parts of China on average have only two children. Also, it raises some concerns that the raw TFR figure for the counties (1.58) had to be adjusted by 27%.

Age

TFR
measured
correction
factor
TFR
corrected
 

15 -19

0.05 0.04 0.07  

20 - 24

0.77 0.53 0.98  

25 - 29

0.46 0.32 0.58  

30 - 34

0.13 0.09 0.17  

35 - 39

0.03 0.02 0.04  

40 - 44

0.01 0.01 0.01  

45 - 49

0.00 0.00 0.00  

45 - 49

1.46   1.85  
     

Total Country

 

Age

TFR
measured
TFR
modified by SSB
Difference  

County

1.58 2.00 0.42  

Town

1.25 1.58 0.33  

City

1.13 1.43 0.30  

Nation

1.46 1.85 0.39  
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Source: State Statistical Bureau (1995): 1 Percent Population Survey. Beijing
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Revision 2.0 (First revision published in 1999)  - Copyright 2011 by Gerhard K. Heilig. All rights reserved. (First revision: Copyright 1999 by IIASA.)