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Presentation

2nd Revision

Introduction

 
Data - Population Growth
Population increase or decline in China by age group, 1950 - 2050*
United Nations Population Projection, 1998 Revision, Medium Variant (millions)
1950-1995 1995-2010 2010-2025 2025-2050 1995-2050 The next 15 years will be a period of massive structural change in China's population. Between 1995 and 2010 the population will grow by about 154 million. This overall growth, however, covers up a significant decline in the number of children and teenagers. Children under the age of 5 will decline by about 11 million; the number of children aged 5 - 19 will decline by more than 29 million. On the other hand, there will be a significant increase in the number of (young) adults of reproductive age  (20 - 49). Their numbers will increase by more than 70 million.
Total

670.0

153.7

107.7

-3.7

257.7

0 - 4

27.4

-11.0

-6.4

-8.2

-25.6

5 - 19

154.6

-29.2

-12.3

-32.6

-74.0

20 - 49

366.3

70.3

-67.1

-68.2

-65.0

50 +

121.7

123.6

193.4

105.2

422.2

*Note: These estimates and projections include the population of Mainland China, Taiwan and Hong Kong.
Source: United Nations Population Division (to be published): World Population Prospects. The 1998 Edition. New York (Data on CD-ROM)

The most dramatic change, however, will be the massive increase in elderly Chinese: their numbers will grow by 123 million between 1995 and 2010, and by another 193 million between 2010 and 2025. If these UN projections are correct, then China will experience a massive aging of the population. Between 1995 and 2050, the number of elderly (aged 50 +) will increase by 422 million, while at the same time the number of people below the age of 50 will decline by more than 165 million (25.6 + 74.0 + 65.0 million for age groups 0 - 4, 5 - 19, and 20 - 49 respectively).
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Revision 2.0 (First revision published in 1999)  - Copyright 2011 by Gerhard K. Heilig. All rights reserved. (First revision: Copyright 1999 by IIASA.)