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Presentation

2nd Revision

Introduction

 
Data - Population
Population and Land Area in China by Potential Crop Yields According to the AEZ Model (t/ha)

Potential
Yields

Area
(sqkm)

Area
(% of Total)

Population
(millions)

Population
(% of Total)

Population
Density

0

4,542,525

48.5

29

2.5

6

< 2

918,725

9.8

43

3.8

47

2 to 4

453,950

4.8

48

4.2

107

4 to 6

637,275

6.8

156

13.5

245

6 to 8

1,008,075

10.8

314

27.1

312

8 to 10

1,343,900

14.3

402

34.7

299

10 to 13

465,900

5.0

166

14.3

356

Source: IIASA LUC-GIS
This table presents data on potential crop yields, based on the project's Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZ) model for China(see: Fischer, G., 1998). The results are from an intermediate step, in which the model produces potential crop yields based on agro-climatic conditions. At this stage, the model does not take into account soil constraints and other physical constraints for crop cultivation. In other words: these model results overestimate the potential crop yields in China - however, not very much.
These yield estimates essentially indicate, how many tons of crops per hectare could be produced in a particular 5 x 5 grid cell, given its agro-climatic conditions. To get this estimate, the model algorithm compares about a dozen crop growth profiles against the length of growing period in this cell (which is determined by various agro-climatic parameters, such as the temperature profile). The model "accepts" the crop, which produced the highest output under the given agro-climatic profile. For details of the methodology, please check Fischer, G. (19..): ...
For instance, China has some 466 thousand square kilometers of land (some 5% of its land area), in which the climate conditions would permit crop cultivation at the very high level of 10 to 13  tons per hectare. Some 166 million Chinese live in these very fertile areas - about 14% of the population.
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Revision 2.0 (First revision published in 1999)  - Copyright 2011 by Gerhard K. Heilig. All rights reserved. (First revision: Copyright 1999 by IIASA.)