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Arguments - Trends |
| Science and Technology in Agriculture, Livestock Production, and
the Food Industry |
China has
significantly improved its agricultural technology since 1978. The country has introduced
high-yield crops, increased its use of agro-chemicals (fertilizers, pesticides) and
agricultural machinery, and expanded irrigation. Rural electricity consumption, which can
be seen as an indicator of technological modernization, has increased more than sixfold.
The food industry has also introduced new technologies for food storage, processing,
preservation, and distribution that have reduced post-harvest losses. However, there is
still a great potential for further technological modernization in this sector.
In recent years the Chinese government has also given high priority to advanced research
in molecular biology, plant genetics, biotechnology, and related fields, which is aimed at
increasing crop yields and livestock productivity. |
| Description
of the Problem |
| Science and technology
will certainly be among the key factors in China's food security during the next few
decades. With China's inevitable population growth, its likely economic development, and
its serious constraints in cropland and water, the country has no other choice than to
modernize its agricultural sector. Which current trends in science and technology will
have an impact on China's food supply? |
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First, we
have to ask how well China's agricultural sector has implemented available modern
technology. This includes the adaptation and improvement of crop plants and livestock
through systematic breeding, the implementation of integrated soil and crop management
systems (fertilizers, pesticides, etc.), and the use of agricultural machinery and
irrigation. |
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The
production of crops and livestock are only the first steps in a long food chain. China's
food security will also depend on how well the country is able to modernize the
post-harvest processes in the food industry. This includes the implementation of modern
technology in logistics, food processing, storage, preservation, and distribution. |
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A third
relevant trend is the quality of agriculture-related basic research in China,
such as research in plant genetics, molecular biology, or recombinant DNA and transgenic
technology. Does China have the necessary basic research to move into high-tech
agriculture during the next 50 years? |
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| Discussion |
| Implementation of available modern technology in agriculture |
Tables
& Charts |
| Without the
modernization of agricultural technology of the past two decades, China would not be able
to feed its current population of 1.3 billion. In particular, the introduction of
high-yield rice in combination with expanded irrigation and a massive increase in the use
of (nitrogen) fertilizers and pesticides has significantly improved crop yields. In
combination with the economic reforms of the late 1970s that re-introduced family farming,
China's "Green Revolution" has led to the spectacular increase in food
production. At the national level, the supply
of chemical fertilizers (nitrogenous, phosphate, potash, and compound fertilizers
combined) in China massively increased from 0.08 to 39.81 million tons between 1952 and
1997, while the total arable land declined slightly. Between 1952 and 1993, the supply of
organic fertilizers only increased from some 5.8 to about 17.7 million tons. The application
of chemical fertilizers increased from 0.6 to about 213 kg per hectare between 1952 and
1993, while the application of organic fertilizers increased from about 41 to 120 kg per
hectare. By 1982 Chinese farmers were applying more chemical than organic fertilizers on
their fields, and by 1993 they were using almost twice as much chemical than organic
fertilizers (see Figure 1 and Table 1). Nonetheless, organic fertilizers still play an
important role in Chinese agriculture.
Irrigation has also been expanded in China: between 1978 and
1997 the irrigated area increased from 45.0 to 51.2 million ha (see Table 2). The total
power of agricultural machinery increased from 117.5 million kW in 1978 to 420.2 million
kW in 1997. During that same period, the number of large and medium-sized agricultural
tractors increased from 557,400 to 689,100 units. The number of mini-tractors increased
almost eightfold, from 1.37 to 10.49 million (see Table 3).
If we use consumption of electricity in rural areas of China
as an indicator of overall technological modernization in agriculture, we can assume that
great progress has been made since the late 1970s. The electricity consumption increased
from 25.3 billion kWh in 1978 to 198 billion kWh in 1997. The generating capacity of
hydropower stations in rural areas more than doubled, from 2.3 to 5.6 million kW (see
Table 2). Reflecting the liberalization of market access for agricultural producers after
1978, there was also a significant improvement in transportation technology. The number of
trucks for agricultural use increased almost twelve-fold, from 73,800 in 1978 to 875,600
in 1997(see Table 3).
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Figure 1
Table 1
Table 2
Table 3
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| Post-harvest technologies / food industry |
The gradual decline of
China's inefficient state-run food distribution system for the nonagricultural population
and the enormous success of free (farmers') markets clearly indicate the trend toward a
modern food production and retail industry based on private enterprises. As official
statistics show, China's food processing and manufacturing industry grew much faster than
the average of all other industries, despite (or perhaps because of) the stagnating or
even declining number of enterprises (see Table 4).
China has certainly improved its post-harvest processes, but there is still a huge
potential for increasing efficiency. Post-harvest losses of (food) crops due to pests,
improper treatment, and storage or transportation waste can be in the order of 5-10%,
sometimes even higher. Although the transportation capacity by truck and train has been
upgraded significantly, it is still inadequate.
China's food industry and retail markets have a long way to go in introducing efficient
methods of food preservation, packaging, storage, and distribution. The supply channels
for the growing number of urban consumers are currently expanding and improving, as can be
seen by the growing number of new supermarkets and shopping centers in China's major
cities. This includes promotion of consumer-related technologies, such as a more
widespread introduction of household refrigerators. |
Table 4 |
| Basic
research capacity (with impact on agriculture, livestock production, and food
processing) |
Despite enormous
progress in grain production since 1978, China became a net-importer of grain in 1994. The
Chinese Academy of Science predicted that the grain deficit would increase to 50 million
tons by 2020. In light of the government's strong commitment to national food
self-sufficiency, this was certainly a shock for the authorities. Within a few months,
government support for agriculture-related research was stepped up. In 1996 the Chinese
government announced a five-year, 10 billion yuan program of support for research to
promote economic development. One-third of the funded projects dealt with the
modernization of agriculture, including research into high-yield crops, intensive farming,
and improved pesticides and fertilizers (Tacey, 1996). A new National Corn Engineering
Technique Research Centre was established in Shandong province. Support was also increased
for existing high-level research centers working on plant genetics, molecular biology, and
related fields.
Before many other developing countries, China's government officials have understood the
importance of biotechnology for its future food security. In 1995 Science magazine devoted
a special section to an analysis of scientific research in China, entitled "The Great
Leap Forward" (Science, Vol 270, 1995). It outlined the great advances China made in
agriculture- and food-related basic research. For instance, a major national biotechnology
program was initiated as early as the mid-1980s. Uninhibited by concerns about
environmental risks, Chinese research centers since then have begun to develop advanced
biotechnological tools, such as recombinant DNA technology.Today, China is one of the
leading countries in agricultural biotechnology. According to Gary Toenniessen, director
of the rice biotechnology program at Rockefeller Foundation, "China is clearly the
most advanced country in the world in terms of using genetic markers and tools in rice
breeding" (Kinoshita, 1995). |
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| Related Arguments |
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Science & Technology: Trends
Impact Data Quality Prediction Error Intervention Possibilities Intervention Costs
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Revision 2.0 (First revision published in 1999)
- Copyright © 2011 by Gerhard K. Heilig. All rights reserved. (First revision: Copyright © 1999 by IIASA.) |
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