|
|
|
|
Arguments - Intervention Possibilities |
| Agricultural Policy |
| What can be done
to keep China's agricultural policy on its current path of economic and political reform?
In particular, what can be done to promote policies that will increase China's future food
security? |
 |
In politics, it always
makes sense to clearly identify the interests involved. China obviously has a vital
interest in continued economic development and social stability. Large-scale food crises
would threaten these objectives. Therefore, food security has top priority on the
political agenda of China's leaders. On the other hand, the developed world,
especially the large agricultural producers, have an interest in getting more open access
to the Chinese market for their products. For example, the USA would probably like to
increase agricultural exports to China to reduce its huge trade deficit with that country. |
|
In the food sector, in
particular, these interests are compatible. If China were to open its grain market to the
outside world, both sides could win. It is certainly more efficient for China to use its
limited resources of arable land and water for the production of high-value agricultural
products such as vegetables or fruits, which are labor intensive but require less
land. On the other hand, China should consider importing a larger share of land-extensive
agricultural products such as grain, oilseed and feed crops from foreign suppliers. For
example, the USA, Australia, and Thailand have abundant land for cost-efficient production
of grain, which could be shipped to China's southern coastal provinces at low prices.
Currently, the Chinese government's insistence on self-sufficiency in grain stands in the
way of such a rational economic choice. However, in the long run the policy might change
if China's leaders calculate the costs of continuously pressing the farmers to step up
domestic grain production. Within the next 20 years, China will need to increase annual
grain supply by between 130 and 220 million tons, depending on the scenario considered.
With grain imports in the range of 40 - 60 million tons, which could be easily provided by
the world grain market, this task could be achieved much more easily and at considerably
lower costs than by domestic production alone. |
|
From the perspective
of the developed countries, it also makes sense to promote China's integration into the
global economy and the World Trade Organization. This would not only intensify China's
economic, cultural, and social relationships with the outside world (which is good in
itself) and open up its potentially huge undeveloped market (which is good for business),
but it would also positively affect the formulation of internal economic policies
in China. China's further integration into the world market would strengthen its market
orientation in all sectors of the domestic economy, including agriculture. |
 |
| Related Arguments |
|
Agricultural Policy: Trends
Impact Data Quality
Prediction Error Intervention
Possibilities Intervention
Costs
|
|
|
Revision 2.0 (First revision published in 1999)
- Copyright © 2011 by Gerhard K. Heilig. All rights reserved. (First revision: Copyright © 1999 by IIASA.) |
|
|