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Arguments - Intervention Costs |
Science and Technology in Agriculture, Livestock
Production, and the Food Industry |
We have found no
specific information on how much additional scientific and technological modernization of
China's agriculture and food industry would cost in monetary terms. Many studies, however,
have shown that, in the past, investment in science and technology usually pays off with
multiple direct and indirect benefits to society (seeThirtle and Bottomley, 1988; Fan,
1991 and 1997). Knowledge is the ultimate resource for overcoming many natural
constraints, particularly in the field of food production. An excellent example is the
"Green Revolution," which was basically driven by (scientific) advances in plant
and animal breeding and by a better understanding of relationships between plant growth,
irrigation, and soil conditions. While many Western scholars in the 1960s and 1970s
denounced these worldwide efforts to improve crops and livestock, it is now clear that the
program has been the single most important step in feeding the current world population of
5.6 billion. The Consultative Group on International
Agricultural Research (CGJAR), with its associated breeding centers and research
stations worldwide, was - and is - at the center of these efforts (see our Web links). In
principle, four types of costs have to be taken into account. |
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First, there are
the direct costs of building up or improving scientific infrastructure
focused on agriculture and food-related research. This includes training researchers,
constructing laboratories and research stations, and conducting specific research
projects. |
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Second, there
might be indirect costs related to the potential risk of advanced
research in fields such as plant genetics. Genetically modified plants and animals might
affect the current plant and animal species when they are released to the environment in
experimental fields. These "new" plants and animals might, in the long run, also
harm the people and animals that eat them. While these dangers are usually dramatized in
public discussions, some minimal risks (and costs) cannot be excluded, even when strict
precautions are taken. |
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Third, we know
that the implementation of high-technology agriculture and livestock production usually
entails substantial secondary costs that have to be met by the farmers
before they can enjoy the benefits. These include investments in
machinery, irrigation, fertilizers, crop sanitation products (such as pesticides,
fungicides, weed killers), soil testing, and harvest processing. Advanced livestock
production has already become a high-technology industry: when production units have tens
of thousands of animals, one needs costly monitoring facilities, feeding machinery,
pharmaceuticals, and highly trained experts to keep the livestock healthy. |
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A fourth category
of costs is associated with the rural labor market. Additional rapid modernization of
agriculture and livestock production in China would release millions of manual laborers in
the rural areas. This would fuel rural-urban migration in the best case and cause
widespread social unrest in the worst case. These "social" costs
might be the most dramatic consequence of a scientific and technological revitalization of
China's agricultural sector. |
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Discussion |
China's past investment in agricultural research |
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The World Bank
has estimated that China had an agricultural productivity growth of some 20% between 1965
and 1994 (World Bank, 1997, p. 15). Fan has shown that the internal rate of return to
agricultural research over the same period was about 94% (Fan, 1996). The World Bank
argues that this high rate of return means that China is underinvesting in agricultural
research. As Figure C85_1 shows, national agricultural research investments in China have
increased in real terms from 644 to 2,063 million yuan. However, investments per
researcher have declined from 46,001 to 33,276 yuan.
These data give support to our argument that streamlining China's scientific
research institutions would probably improve agricultural research. |

C85_1 |
Related Arguments |
Science & Technology: Trends
Impact Data Quality Prediction Error Intervention Possibilities Intervention Costs
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