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Presentation

2nd Revision

Introduction

 
Arguments - Intervention Costs
Urbanization
If China continues to develop a modern industrial and service-oriented economy, further urbanization is probably unavoidable. Any intervention to stop this process will use money that would be better spent in planning and building adequate urban infrastructure. The disaster of chaotic and unplanned urban growth in the form of huge shanty towns and squatter settlements seen in many large cities in Latin America, Africa, and developing countries in Asia, should be a lesson for China not to follow this development path. China needs to significantly expand public transport systems (subways) in big cities such as Beijing or Shanghai to prevent serious traffic problems. It will also be necessary to at least partially privatize the urban housing (and land) sector, so that private initiative can reduce the extreme accommodation shortages in many urban areas of China. Basic infrastructure - such as sewage, energy distribution, water supply, and waste disposal systems in cities and urban areas of China - needs to be expanded and improved.
It is precisely this type of urban infrastructure investment that laid the foundation for the economic "miracles" of Singapore, Hong Kong, and Kuala Lumpur. The idea that a modern industrial and service society can be developed with a huge agricultural population restricted to rural areas is simply wrong. If China wants to modernize, it has to expand and improve its urban areas, which will have to accommodate a much larger proportion of the population than in the past.
Related Arguments

Urbanization:   Trends     Impact    Data Quality    Prediction Error    Intervention Possibilities    Intervention Costs

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Revision 2.0 (First revision published in 1999)  - Copyright 2011 by Gerhard K. Heilig. All rights reserved. (First revision: Copyright 1999 by IIASA.)