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Presentation

2nd Revision

Introduction

 
Arguments - Prediction Error
Water
Two contradictory factors will most likely determine China's future water demand: 
WB00860_.gif (262 bytes) With further economic development, we can almost certainly expect growing water demand in the urban and industrial sectors. Public water supply for residential use will have to increase substantially in line with the projected rapid urbanization. Currently, China is still far behind in this sector. It is estimated that 75% of the cities in China do not have an adequate potable water supply.
WB00860_.gif (262 bytes) On the other hand, we can also expect that additional programs for rational and efficient water use will be implemented. As the agricultural sector is by far the largest water user in China, we might see only a slight increase in water extraction in this sector due to conservation measures. Because water efficiency is still rather low in Chinese irrigation (and since irrigation makes up a large share of water use), improvements in irrigation efficiency could actually lead to a leveling off or even a decline in agricultural water consumption.
Although modernization will drive up water demand in urban and industrial sectors, it could also greatly improve water efficiency in all sectors, especially in agriculture. It is very difficult to determine which trend might dominate, so the prediction error of China's future water demand is certainly high.
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Related Arguments

Water Resources:   Trends     Impact    Data Quality    Prediction Error    Intervention Possibilities    Intervention Costs

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Revision 2.0 (First revision published in 1999)  - Copyright 2011 by Gerhard K. Heilig. All rights reserved. (First revision: Copyright 1999 by IIASA.)